Foresight: The Scientific, Technological and Societal Conditions for the End of the COVID-19 Crisis
Directorate-General for Research and Innovation (European Commission) issued the study that uses the Dynamic Argumentative Delphi method to explore experts’ views on what Europe may look like in 2023, in domains relating to medicine, public health, and socio-economic conditions. Based on the experts’ responses, the points of consensus and the areas of diverging opinions, the study developed five scenarios of exit from the crisis in 2023, associated with the relative success of efforts to develop immunity and with lessons learned as a result of those efforts. The report draws some conclusions for EU R&I policy, but together with its data annex, it can support strategic discussions across many different policy fields.
Socio-economic consequences and opportunities
The study explored a diverse set of statements about possible socio-economic consequences and opportunities of the COVID-19 crisis:
“General unemployment levels will noticeably increase in the medium term, falling most heavily on the lower skilled and young people in particular. There is an expectation that Europe will see the ‘gig’ economy becoming slightly more important in 2023. On the other hand, graduate unemployment while not expected to be long-lived, fresh graduates will find their careers are set back for some years. Many instead will choose to stay in education for longer.”
“The provision of online education in the EU will also be significantly increased. Hence there is widespread support for rethinking access to digital infrastructure, which is increasingly seen as an essential utility. New investments will diminish the digital divide that exists between rural and urban areas and prompt more people across Europe to move from large cities to the countryside to live and work there.”
Find the publication HERE.
Future Hunters: Low Touch Economy
- Where do you stand like a person and professional in relation to this possible future scenario?
- How may the behaviour of your target groups likely to change as a consequence of Covid-19?
- What future do you envision for your team or organisation?